DRAFTe list: Names 17 to 32
Note: this is a version 2 of the model and ranking, after revisiting the age adjustment formula.
Yesterday we presented the top 16 names from the DRAFTe model, if you missed it or want to read some introduction to the results, go check it out.
Here is the rest of the top 32 names.
17. Isaac Howard (USHL)
Just get on with the whole Team USA. Production was great but his 5v5 differential was negative relative to his team. At the 80th percentile historically, he also gets a 71% chance of making the NHL but he is one step behind the other Team USA forwards ranked ahead of him.
18. Juraj Slafkovsky (Liiga)
Slafkovsky’s name has been around a lot lately given his play on the international stage. However, his production in Liiga was just okay with 10 points in 31 games. His overall performance only puts him at the 55th percentile historically, similarly to Kasperi Kapanen and just below Teuvo Teravainen. Now, Liiga is a great source of NHLer in our database, all the top 12 forwards (out of 22) drafted from there making the NHL. Slavkovsky ranks close to the limit but still get a 100% probability of making the NHL. And it is to be noted that his defensive play was rather good in Liiga.
His junior play was as expected (18 points in 11 games), ranking him at the 88th percentile historically, but it doesn’t mean much for NHL success.
19. Lane Hutson (USHL)
One of our favorite for the draft. A 5’08 defenseman able to score 32 points in 27 games in the USHL, Hutson ranks at the 100th percentile historically among USHL defensemen alongside Adam Fox. Now, only 50% of the best Dmen from that league made the NHL but it’s enough for Hutson to end up that high in the model. Will his size make him drop to become a valuable end of 1st round pick in real life?
20. Filip Mesar (Slovakia)
The final Slovak of the draft. Mesar put up a strong performance in the senior Slovak league. Very few 18 years old ever played in the main league there, which is a sign on its own, in addition to his performance.
21. Tyler Duke (USHL)
Another small defenseman from the Team USA program. Duke had a good season, his performance placing him at the 96th percentile historically, similar to Jacob Trouba or Justin Faulk.
22. Jagger Firkus (WHL)
Firkus is often rumoured to be in the first round by many scouting lists. His 78 points and +21 5v5 differential speaks for him, though it is only a performance placing him at the 84th percentile historically, alongside guys who made the NHL 55% of the time.
23. Gleb Trikozov (MHL)
Trikozov is the first Russian player on our list. His play in the MHL ranked at the 91st percentile historically, similar to a Nikita Kucherov… Though it only means a 33% chance of making the NHL. Sadly for him his few games in the VHL were not productive and slows down his final DRAFTe here.
24. Seamus Casey (USHL)
A small defenseman from the USHL? Sounds familiar. Seamus still performed at the 93rd percentile historically there.
25. Hudson Thornton (WHL)
Not as famous as Korchinski or Matheychuk, Thornton still put up 46 points in 65 games and if his 5v5 goals differential is pretty negative, it is still relatively better than what his teammates in Prince George did without him. Basically, he played a lot of minutes for a bad team and did very much ok. Ranking at the 74th percentile historically among defensemen in the WHL, his performance is similar to what Damon Severson posted on his draft year.
26. Adam Ingram (USHL)
Another USHL player, this time a forward. Ingram scored a point per game for an above average team (Youngstown). At the 72nd percentile historically, Ingram has a 51% probability of making the NHL.
27. Vinny Borgesi (USHL)
Another small USHL Defenseman. This is NOT on purpose. Borgesi is not a famous name in scouting lists but his 55 impact was huge for Tri-City. He even ended the season with a better Win Shares than Ingram but suffers from a early March birthday here.
28. Artyom Duda (MHL)
Duda is the second Russian on this list. Nothing to do with the political situation of course but it’s just an off year for them. Historically the MHL did not produce many talents, as they are either already in the KHL or in Canada. Duda still posted a better performance than the guys coming from there (namely Nikita Nesterov). It gives him a 33% probability of making the NHL.
29. Liam Ohgren (Sweden U20)
Ohgren is usually ranked higher in most lists. He had a very strong season in junior, scoring 58 points in 30 games and his Win Shares ranked at the 100th percentile historically. However, he also suited up for 25 SHL games, where he could only register 2 points and a -7 5v5 goals differential, ending with a negative Win Shares. Those SHL games put him at the 14th percentile historically, dragging down his overall evaluation by the model.
30. Luca Del Bel Belluz (OHL)
Finally, we are getting some other Canadian juniors, which says a lot about the strength of this year’s cohort according to the model. Del Bel Belluz had a good year in Mississauga but only placing him at the 69th percentile historically, with a 46% chance of reaching the NHL.
31. Ryan Chesley (USHL)
A 6 foot defenseman! yeah. Chesley suffers here from a 5v5 goals differential relatively below how his team performed without him. At the 77th percentile historically, there is a 50% chance of making the NHL.
32. Yaroslav Tsulygin (MHL)
Let’s end with another defenseman from the MHL, again breaking the best performance we saw in 15 years, but for a league with very little reference of players getting to the NHL.
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