DRAFTe top 16 names for the NHL draft 2022
Note: this is a version 2 of the model and ranking, after revisiting the age adjustment formula.
Last week we introduced our new DRAFTe metric aiming at projecting the potential of a prospect ahead of the NHL draft.
Please remember that the idea was to project a prospect based on his draft year environment (league, position, performance). So if a player performed well, in a league where players before him became NHLer with similar performances, his projection will be good. In brief, this is about average career potential, with the full upside of each player to be decided by a thorough scouting process. This is why Canadian juniors are probably ranked lower in the model than they will be on draft day, as their real upside is more clear to NHL scouts than for an obscure European junior.
Anyway, here is the top 16 names, and the reasons why they rank as such. We are talking where the prospect ranks historically among his peers, the probability of becoming an NHLer, and the transition coefficient (NHLe) of his league towards the NHL. Also remember that we only looked at 18 years old and no goalies.
1. Simon Nemec (Slovakia)
Nemec is simply a stat mutant for this year’s draft. The numbers he has put up this year in the Slovak senior league are very good, and he was playing there as a 17 years old already last year. Only three defensemen were drafted from Slovakia senior league in our database (2008-2017), and two of them became NHLer, with a massive NHLe of 2.87 between their draft year and their NHL career average. Ranking at the top historically of those Slovak defensemen, Nemec enjoys a very high probability of reaching the NHL AND that high NHLe.
His DRAFTe score of 9.81 is the second best seen since the model is in function, beating Rasmus Dahlin’s 10.32. Nemec also ranks second if we had looked at points based projection only.
Will he be picked first overall? Probably not but his resume is one of a kind, opening a similar situation to Moritz Seider a few years back.
2. Joakim Kemell (Liiga)
Kemell putting up 23 points in 39 games of Liiga is an impressive performance, placing him at the 77th percentile among forwards drafted from Liiga, at the same level of performance than Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen or Jesse Puljujarvi. A rank where everybody became an NHLer, granting Kemell a 100% probability in his DRAFTe formula. His DRAFTe score of 3.71 is almost a full point ahead of Lekkerimaki’s 2.82.
Kemell would also rank first overall on points based projection too.
3. Jonathan Lekkerimaki (SHL)
Lekkerimaki is a smallish forward who spent his time between Swedish junior, where he performed at the 96th percentile historically, and did very well inthe SHL (86th percentile). The mix of both gives him a 60% probability of becoming an NHLer. His points production would put him at the 12th rank here but his 5v5 numbers gave him a good boost.
4. Frank Nazar (USHL)
The first of many Team USA products. Nazar’s scoring was high and his 5v5 differential was relatively positive. Sadly for him, his birthday is in the worst quarter of the year for the model, holding his DRAFTe back. At the 97th percentile historically among USHL forwards, he was also very close to a 71% probability of making the NHL.
5. Matthew Savoie (WHL)
Savoie had a great season with 90 points and a +54 differential at 5v5. Even, playing for the top team in the league. At the 96th percentile historically among WHL forwards, he compares just below Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with a 74% chance of making the NHL.
6. Cutter Gauthier (USHL)
Gauthier’s numbers in the USHL rank at the 96th percentile historically, comparing him above Jack Roslovic, above Kyle Connor or Johnny Gaudreau. Junior leagues have a much lower NHLe than senior leagues of course but Gauthier gets a 71% probability of making the big league.
7. David Jiricek (Czech)
David Jiricek has been playing in the top Czech league for two seasons now, with even better numbers last season. Only three defensemen have been drafted from the Czech league in our database and one fully made the NHL, but Jiricek is making up for that 33% probability with the best performance even seen for his category by far, being a big offensive driver for his team. He is also born in late 2003, which is the biggest age adjustment booster.
8. Logan Cooley (USHL)
Cooley has some late hype around his name. The small forward has been producing a lot while showing a +19 5v5 goals differential, on par with his team average. It puts him at the 92nd percentile historically in the USHL, with a 71% probability of becoming an NHLer.
9. Rutger McGroarty (USHL)
Another USHL forward, McGroarty production was a bit lower than Cooley’s but his 5v5 differential was above his team average. He ranks also at the 91st percentile historically.
10. Shane Wright (OHL)
(W)Right. Wright will probably selected first overall but only ends 10th here. The reason is a great but not elite season in the OHL, a league that has produced a vast number of players who crushed the league on their draft year. Wright overall Win Shares performance ranked first in the OHL this season, but is only the 38th out of 248 forwards drafted from 2008 to 2017. At the 85th percentile, Wright only benefits from a 68% chance of making the NHL.
However, as we mentioned in a previous article, if you decide to tweak his DRAFTe formula to give him a 100% probability based on your overall knowledge of the player, Wright ends up at the 4th place here, while his scoring alone would project him as 5th.
11. Otto Salin (Finland U20)
Salin is the first big bet from the model. He played very little this year but score over a point per game in the junior as a defenseman and a +10 5v5 goals differential. One less game and he would not have been included at all. Could he have continued over a full season? His play after returning from injuries was, by all accounts, pretty difficult. Anyway, that performance put him at the 100th percentile historically, even if Finnish junior has not been a huge provider of NHLer. He also suited up for 6 Liiga games, too few to be included here.
12. Kevin Korchinski (WHL)
Korchinski had a great year in the WHL, scoring almost a point per game and with a +39 5v5 goals differential. Enough to rank him at the 100th percentile historically among WHL defensemen, above Seth Jones. However, elite Dmen from the West have not been a sure thing in the past, and Korchinski only gets a 58% probability of becoming an NHLer.
13. Adam Sykora (Slovakia)
The second Slovak, Adam Sykora simply put the best season ever for a 18 years old forward in Slovakia. Well, only two players were drafted from there, Radovan Bondra and Tomas Tatar. But Sykora did better than Tatar in scoring and was strong at 5v5. With a 50% probability of making the NHL, his DRAFTe is high but his scoring would have him more at the 33rd place.
14. Jiri Kulich (Czech)
Kulich spent almost the whole season in the Czech senior league, scoring at the high rate of 14 points in 49 games, with a +7 as well. Good enough to rank him at the 83rd percentile among Czech forwards, above Martin Necas. Now, the Czech league has been a bit surprising historically, with two of the best performers (Ostap Safin and Dominik Lakatos) not making the NHL.
However, it still remains a strong sign of potential to be able to play there at 18 years old, giving Kulich a 63% probability of making the NHL.
15. William Proos (Allsenskan)
Who? Yes. William Proos is a stranger on this list. He was not listed anywhere according to Elite Prospect and whether he will be drafted at all will certainly keep us awake on draft day. Here why he shows up that high.
Proos played a good part of the season in Swedish second tiers (Allsvenskan), among men. He put up 11 points in 34 games, with a +5 goals differential while playing for Almtuna, a team that ended 12th out of 14th in the league. Being from Almtuna also meant that Proos could only play second level Swedish junior where he was the best 18 years old by far with 41 points in 19 games. Now, that second level of junior is not taken into account here but his Allsvenskan play was good enough to rank him at the 43rd percentile historically, close to some Filip Forsberg, Jesper Bratt or Jesper Boqvist. In our database (2008-2017), the Allsvenskan has been a formidable provider for the NHL, with 13 of the 14 forwards drafted making the big league!
Proos’ rank here is therefore the product of his decent play, a September birthdate, and the strong results of the Allsvenskan. He is also a big 6’3 boy if that helps. Will he be noticed? We bet his name would certainly at least appear in some list if he had play in the top junior level.
16. Denton Mateychuk (WHL)
Mateychuk is another point per game defenseman from the WHL. His 5v5 play puts him below Korchinski, at the 99th percentile historically. Potential is still 58% probability of making the NHL.
The rest of the list will continue tomorrow!
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