UPDATED: First look at DRAFTe projections for the 2023 NHL Draft
That's a great year for tanking
Sooooo there was a glitch in the data scrapping for some junior leagues, for players having been traded, only their latest team is included. This impacted not only those players, but all other players in the league as well as Win Shares take context information into account.
Hello there,
Reports on the incoming 2023 NHL draft have started to pop up here and there, and we used the international break this week (meaning no league game in Europe) to update our DRAFTe model for this year.
This will be quick, and other people have written much more in depth analysis of those young men beyond the numbers. And, as we have always said, this is only a projection model based on their Win Shares performance this year, not taking into account whatever physical, mental, personal attributes of the players (though it might reflect in their current play…).
Has the model changed?
No. But numbers have been updated to now include the 2018 draft. Meaning 2018 draftees are now part of the evaluation sample going back to 2008, looking if they reached the NHL or not, and with what success.
So they might have impacted the transition coefficient (NHLe) from their league to the NHL and the probability of becoming an NHLer for the percentile group.
Among the big DRAFTe values from 2018, we can find Noah Dobson, best historical value for a defenseman in the LHJMQ, Ty Smith, also best historical value for a defenseman in the WHL, same for Oliver Wahlstrom for the USHL forwards, and Vitali Kravtsov gives a bit of depth to the VHL sample.
Finally, the NHL careers have been obviously updated up to January 6th, 2023, meaning players that were not considered NHLers before might have become one, impacting the reference numbers for their leagues of origins.
Got it?
Back to 2023. This is an incredible year for tanking, though tanking does not exist in the NHL.
I might sound like Captain obvious here, but it is interesting to see that numbers are indeed confirming what all experts have been foreseeing for a while.
First and foremost, it is mind blowing how many prospects have put up the best historical performance in their respective leagues since our model begun in 2008.
Connor Bedard just blows away the WHL record of Evander Kane and is above Connor McDavid.
Adam Fantilli beats Jack Eichel in the NCAA.
Michkov has the best in VHL, though not in KHL.
Both Gabe Perreault and Will Smith are above Oliver Wahlstrom in the USHL.
David Reinbacher is above Roman Josi in the Swiss National League.
Martin Misiak is above Adam Sykora and Filip Mesar in Slovakia and Magomed Sharakanov is the best defenseman out of the Russian MHL.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Connor Bedard is… now at the top of the list (not by much). He obviously is the best prospect this year, and his DRAFTe numbers alone are incredible, especially for a Canadian junior. OHL, WHL and LHJMQ are leagues that bring a bit more uncertainty in the model given the large sample of prospects drafted from there, which includes some busts even at the highest level, when the best prospects from any European senior league make it to the NHL.
The next observation here is that, despite Bedard’s extraordinary numbers, two guys, Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov are having such incredible seasons that the model puts them relatively close to him. Which underlines how great this group is.
Furthermore, three other players, Leo Carlsson and David Reinbacher would also all have been at the top of the 2022 list (only behind Simon Nemec and his historical numbers).
You want more? Colby Barlow, Zach Benson and Andrew Cristall would all have been on the podium of the 2022 draft, behind Nemec and Kemell.
One last thing. As the performances are really remarkable this season, especially in more traditional leagues in North-America, there seems to be less weird picks from the model, less analytical darlings from obscure European leagues.
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