How to spot a Goal Scorer?
What is the best proxy metric for goals?
We talked about goalies in the past. Let’s move to the other side of the equation.
Some players score more goals than others… But why?
Talent? Yes, of course. Technics. Release, precision, deception, etc. But how could we identify the signs of such talent? What, in reality, makes a player better at scoring than others?
Now, also imagine you have a list of players you never heard about, and have for each of them a bunch of shooting stats, but not the number of goals they scored.
How would you spot the goal scorers?
Is it the volume of shots?
Is it the precision (% of shots on target).
Is it the average danger of the shots (xG per shot).
Is it the difficulty goaltenders have to stop those shots?
Let’s take the players from the Swiss National League in 2021-22. Thanks to our project NL Ice Data, we have a database on those shooting indicators, dating back to 2019-20 for the players present in the league since that time. We took all events that happened at 5v5 and on the Power Play. Excluding particular shooting contexts like PK chances, 6v5, empty nets and 4v4/3v3. Players are ranked in percentile among their position on each metric. 30 games minimum.
Volume of shots is the number of shot attempts taken by the player.
On target% speaks for itself. It is the percentage of shot attempts that hit the net.
Shots Difficulty is the opposite of the Goalies’ Shot control. A difficult shot attempt ended either in a goal or forced the goalie to an uncontrolled rebound.
xG per shot attempt is literally what it says it is.
Now let’s look at the relationship with Goals scored per 60mn.
Without any doubt, the volume of shots is the best indicator to identify a goal scorer, 1.5 times above the other metrics to be precise (looking at the correlation numbers).
Hitting the net? No. Making goalies spit out rebounds? No. Few but dangerous shots? No.
Trying, again and again and again? Yes!
A quick look at the best goal scorers in the league shows how high they also are on volume shooting (iCF/60). And mostly random on the other categories.
The best of the best would still check many boxes of shooting talent. Former Columbus Blue Jackets Gregory Hofmann hits the net a lot but is only around the 63-69th percentile for Dangerous shots and xG per shot. He ranks at the 97th percentile for volume.
Daniel Carr may have the best wrist shot in the league. But if he is elite on shooting volume, he is only above average on hitting the target and shot difficulty.
Another former Montreal Canadiens, Sven Andrighetto, fits the same profile. Lots of volume, average precision, low xG per shot.
There are obviously many other factors to take into consideration, or that build into this. The shooter mentality, the confidence to take shots, the trust in your own shooting skills. And they shoot a lot.
Pushing a young player for more volume (without forgetting to avoid unnecessary shots, more on that another day), is probably a good thing. Spotting a shooting mentality in a prospect is good omen as well. Nourishing that willingness to try over and over is essential. Finally, setting goals for shots per game or over the season can be done at any level, especially for shooters with potential, etc.
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