Interesting Suniev is ahead of Nadeau considering the difference in scoring this year and Nadeau is ~6 months younger. Is the Fall vs. Spring birthday influencing that much?
hmmm I corrected lots of old birthdate and apparently it added Beau Bennett into the BCHL historical, pushing down Nadeau's probabilities on points. Note that 3 NHLe is not a raw value, but his NHLe * the probability of it happening.
I was wondering if a third component could be considered in parallel with win shares and points for established players : minutes played in the NHL. The model seems to undervalue defencemans but maybe considering time on ice could sway it more in a realistic draft order, since defensive metrics are harder to quantify, although time played is an indicator of success.
Thanks! This is a low year for defensemen and should not be looked at a reference, I have Dmen at the top of the ranking way more often in the previous years.
But TOI is interesting, though I'd need to tie it to something from the junior years and TOI is not available and can be derived everywhere. But good thinking.
Interesting Suniev is ahead of Nadeau considering the difference in scoring this year and Nadeau is ~6 months younger. Is the Fall vs. Spring birthday influencing that much?
Yes it is.
Sorry for all of the questions, but was there an update? Nadeau went from an NHLe of 16 down to 4, while Suniev stayed at 16. Feels like that is off.
hmmm I corrected lots of old birthdate and apparently it added Beau Bennett into the BCHL historical, pushing down Nadeau's probabilities on points. Note that 3 NHLe is not a raw value, but his NHLe * the probability of it happening.
Good to know. Do you have a projection for Matthew Mania of Sudbury? Doesn't look like he's in the data set. Thanks!
SOmehow his birthday was wrong (10/11 instead of 01/11) pushing him to 2024. WIll be corrected. thanks!
Mania is 125th. Tableau has been updated
Awesome work. Thanks!
Solid article again.
I was wondering if a third component could be considered in parallel with win shares and points for established players : minutes played in the NHL. The model seems to undervalue defencemans but maybe considering time on ice could sway it more in a realistic draft order, since defensive metrics are harder to quantify, although time played is an indicator of success.
Thanks! This is a low year for defensemen and should not be looked at a reference, I have Dmen at the top of the ranking way more often in the previous years.
But TOI is interesting, though I'd need to tie it to something from the junior years and TOI is not available and can be derived everywhere. But good thinking.